When competing to sell products and services that return a profit on investment, business owners seek opportunities to meet or create customer demand. Rather than reacting to change, an organisation that anticipates and prepares in advance can benefit from early mover advantage. Whether in the private or public sector, delivery of projects over a number of years can be influenced by as yet unknown future economic, demographic, social, geopolitical, environmental or regulatory factors, scientific discoveries and technology innovations. Predicting the future using futurology might provide insights that inform decision making and increase the probability of success.
Organisations responsible for planning and delivering large scale infrastructure projects, in the private or public sector, make decisions that determine outcomes decades into the future. However, long term success or failure will be influenced by as yet unknown economic, geopolitical, demographic, social, environmental and technological factors. Political cycles, or profit driven commercial demand, can lead to decision makers reacting to immediate challenges and seeking credit for short term results, often without considering long term consequences. Long term success can benefit society as a whole, but requires decision making based upon good data and a long term strategy.
Business owners compete to bring to market products and services that will return a profit on their investment of resources. To achieve this they look for opportunities to meet or create customer demand. Governments are elected to deliver results that will benefit the population. However, long term success will require an investment of resources and reputation by people who might not be in office when the benefits are delivered. In a rapidly changing world, effective decision making also requires access to the best possible information regarding as yet unknown factors that might impact future developments.
Past, Present and Future
Through experience, human beings have learned to expect predictable events, such as the changing seasons, which determine when crops should be planted and harvested. Since ancient times people have sought prophecies about future events, in an attempt to gain a tactical advantage. They often sought answers from mystical sources, such as the Oracle of Delphi and astrology. However, in the modern world people prefer to take a more rational scientific approach, that involves making evidence based predictions based on probability, by inputting relevant data into models built to simulate real world scenarios.
Predicting the future of technology and its impact on human society have featured in science fiction books and movies. For example, in Foundation, written by Isaac Asimov, psychohistory was used to predict large scale future events, by combining an analysis of history, sociology and mathematics. A common factor in different cultures and periods of history, human psychology and behaviour can be measured using the Five Factor Model of personality, which can influence how people respond to change and pressure they might apply to decision makers. We can also learn from patterns in history, which is said to rhyme rather than repeat.
Business owners seek competitive advantages. Predicting the future within their sector could help them to shape the course of product and service development and potentially dominate their chosen niche. Information sources could include scientific and technical publications, patent filings, broadcast, print and social media stories and market research findings. Applying an approach based on the scientific method to the evaluation of such data could support product and service development, marketing and sales. As part of a content marketing strategy, this could inspire engaging stories featuring compelling characters and narratives can help to position a brand as a thought leader in their industry.
Futurology
Futurology is the study of possible futures, also referred to as futures studies. In business, government and non-profit organisations, the related field of strategic foresight describes the analysis of trends, signals and forecasts when planning how to achieve goals. Rather than predicting the future in detail, futurology can identify potential outcomes. It can provide information that improves decision making, by better managing uncertainty and preparing for anticipated change. The impact of technology such as artificial intelligence and robotics is rapidly transforming society. Applying futurology to planning and goal setting could provide individuals and organisations with a competitive advantage.
A strategic foresight framework for small business owners could align strategic goals with regulatory changes, availability of resources and customer demand. This could be applied to activities such as project planning, risk management, research and development, enabling early investment in emerging opportunities. Government and public sector departments could use futurology to guide policy decisions, infrastructure planning and the future of AI in education, the future of healthcare systems and the future of transport technologies. Some countries publish reports to guide development strategies, using projections related to factors such as demographics, energy and water demand, climate, geopolitics, industry and the impact of technology.
Core elements of futurology include; looking at best and worst case scenarios, unpredictable events, caused by complexity and uncertainty and considering all possible factors. The process could begin by describing a hoped for future and then working in reverse to determine steps required to get there. For example, the timing of entering or expanding in a market could lead to success or failure. Identifying and preparing for potential opportunities, risks and consequences could help an organisation manage the ups and downs of economic cycles and unexpected events, if information is effectively communicated to stake holders and decision makers.
Predictive Models
Within a controlled environment, such as a card or board game, the number of variables will be limited and knowable, enabling probability to be calculated with a good degree of confidence. However, predicting the future on a global scale in the real world, confronts anyone who attempts to do so with an almost infinite combination of variables to consider. The accuracy and quality of data can vary and random, seemingly unrelated, events not included in the analysis could influence real world outcomes. Preferences and bias could also influence data input selection, analysis and conclusions.
Applying probability to human society, we might not be able to predict small scale events accurately, but on a larger scale knowing the relevant variables and having good quality accurate data could deliver useful results. For example, we cannot confidently predict the score in a particular football match or a company share price on a specific day. We can have more success though when predicting the future performance of a team over a longer time period, if we have access to relevant historic and current statistical data and a proven model with which to analyse the data.
When building predictive models of complex systems, the greater the range and depth of relevant data considered, the more likely resulting predictions will be accurate. For example, meteorologists use computer models of historic data to produce the weather forecasts that many of us consult before going out for the day. However, predicting the future becomes increasingly difficult the further we look into the future. Also specialists might be unaware of relevant factors not in their field of expertise, while generalists lack depth of understanding. Therefore, care should be taken when evaluating results from such models.
Artificial Intelligence
The impact of increasingly powerful AI on futurology studies will be significant. The processing power and speed of AI is being used to predict outcomes as varied as future climate change mitigation to customer behaviour on eCommerce platforms. However, predicting future events on a global scale requires highly complex models and vast quantities of data. AI could be used to run models far beyond human comprehension. For example, all know data related to particular periods of history could be fed into a model and predictions compared to actual events. The level of accuracy could serve as a baseline to predict future events.
Physicists describe the behaviour of subatomic particles as unpredictable. The position of a specific particle is uncertain. However, using probability behaviour of large numbers of particles can be predicted to a high level of accuracy. Chaos theory describes small changes having large effects, such as a butterfly flapping its wings and causing a storm. Therefore, rather than attempt to predict exact outcomes, scenarios can be developed. They can describe a range of possible outcomes based on observable patterns at population level and allow for the complex and unpredictable nature of chaotic systems.
AI powered predictive models might provide useful insights, but how much trust should we place in AI predictions, rather than our own judgement? People who are motivated by ill intent might compromise predictions provided by AI. If AI became sentient and developed motivations that conflict with our own, would it intentionally mislead us. We could consider safeguards and regulations, but companies and nations are competing to build the most powerful AI, which some view as a winner takes all competition. Global regulations are already in place in for other powerful technologies, but this is yet to be agreed for AI.
The Future of Technology
We have seen the building of websites, once the preserve of well paid highly skilled specialists, become what is now available as an inexpensive packaged product, forcing many web designers to adapt to the new market realities. A similar process is beginning to effect aspects of business, where software can manage automated processes. This could lead to a world where business owners are assisted by a range of AI powered Agents, which can analyse data, rapidly test scenarios, provide advice and deliver results in relation to tasks ranging from design and finance, to sales and marketing.
The Internet has changed how people are able to live, work and communicate. Increasing use of mobile devices has led to greater consumption of content through mobile applications and websites have been adapted to become more mobile friendly. When attempting to predict the future of technology, we cannot know with certainty, the effects of innovations that might emerge during the years ahead. However, we can anaylse current trends. For example, augmented reality, virtual reality and artificial intelligence are beginning to change the ways in which content can be created, delivered and engaged with.
The Internet of Things (IoT) is increasingly effecting how we interact products. Big data processing using AI enables companies to spot patterns that humans would likely miss. Small data enables provision of more personalised services, catering for individual preferences. 3D printing enables businesses to create prototypes and custom designs. AI and robotics could displace millions of human workers, causing huge economic and social disruption. For example, businesses might automate every stage from product design, development and manufacturing, to marketing, sales and delivery. However, the teaming human skills with AI and robotics might deliver better results.
Infrastructure, Green Energy and AI
Large infrastructure projects, such as housing, transport and utilities, planned today will require years to build and must serve communities decades into the future. In a rapidly changing world many assumptions about the future will be inaccurate. For example, competition to develop more powerful AI is driving construction of data centres. However, demand for electricity and clean water to power AI competes with with human need for electricity and clean drinking water. Green energy generation storage and transmission, sustainable technology, such as heat pumps and smart grids, along with climate regulations will influence decision makers, as will priorities of voters applying pressure to elected officials.
The planning and construction of infrastructure involves both private and public sector organisations. Rigid forecasting methods based only on historic data are unlikely to provide relevant information required to support effective decision making. Futurology, such as strategic foresight techniques, could deliver more reliable results. A strategy that predicts probable futures, aligning economic, social and environment imperatives with resource supply and demand can enable better planning and delivery of complex infrastructure projects. A framework built on good quality data, that can adapt appropriately to changing conditions, will support good decision making and more successful outcomes.
Futurology identifies signals, analyses trends and develops long term plausible scenarios. For example, the probable impact of geopolitics on supply chains, availability of raw materials used to construct wind turbines or solar panels and the future of renewable energy storage. Climate could impact food production, population movement and future urban planning strategies. Data centres require huge quantities of electricity and clean water, placing growing demand on electrical grids and water supplies, increasing prices and reducing availability to other industries and households.
Conclusions
People living prior to the Industrial Revolution could not have imagined the world we live in today. Some living in the late nineteenth or early twentieth century attempted to predict the future, but they did so within the framework of their own experience of life. The impact of the Internet, mobile communication and social media are still being evaluated. Economic and social consequences of artificial intelligence and robotics are widely debated, as the technology begins to change the society around us. Although none of us be certain what life will be during the decades to come, futurology provides a methodology that can help us to prepare for whatever awaits us.